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Mechanical Market Timing Track Record
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YTD Results as of May 4, 2023 - We are having an excellent year! Our members have profited
+6.60% (2023 YTD Average)
(+6.37% SPY,
+6.08% DIA, and
+7.35% QQQ). The buy and hold strategy is up +3.98% (yearly total average for DIA, SPY, and QQQ). Our current signal is up +0.82%. We are currently beating the market by +2.62% YTD.
May 31: State of the Market - The US stock market is mixed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 189 points, or 0.5%, at 33,093. The S&P 500 is down 0.6% at 4,205. And the Nasdaq Composite is down 0.76% at 12,975. There are a few factors weighing on the market today. First, investors are still digesting the news that the US debt ceiling has been raised. The deal was reached over the weekend, but it's still not clear how it will impact the economy in the long term. Second, investors are concerned about the ongoing war in Ukraine. The war has caused energy prices to surge, which is putting pressure on inflation. Third, investors are worried about the potential for a recession. The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates several times this year in an effort to combat inflation. But higher interest rates could slow economic growth and lead to a recession. Despite these concerns, there are some positive signs for the market. Corporate earnings are still growing, and the unemployment rate is at a low level. This suggests that the economy is still in good shape, even though there are some headwinds. Overall, the market is likely to remain volatile in the near term. Investors will need to keep an eye on the debt ceiling, the war in Ukraine, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes. But if the economy continues to grow and corporate earnings remain strong, the market could eventually recover. According to a recent poll by the World Economic Forum, nearly two-thirds of economists believe a recession is likely to happen. But don't panic - you can take steps to protect your investments and come out ahead. One way to do that is by using a proven trading system like MMT. With MMT, you'll have a powerful timing system on your side that can help you navigate changing market conditions and identify profitable trends. It takes just a few seconds to sign up for the free 3-day trial if you would like to check out the member area first. Note: Our YTD starts from the first signal to close in 2023. You can see the individual trades in our trading history PDF. |
An Example of Our Methodology based on the
"Actual Trading History of QQQ in Year 2016"
The chart above shows our trading history for the ETF "QQQ". Red circles indicate the price & time we went to short sell positions. Green circles show the price & time for long positions. The green lines indicate profitable trades. The shorter red lines indicate nonprofitable trades. Notice how the system 'always' produces profitable gains for trending markets (i.e., trading either up or down). For lateral markets (i.e., nontrending with no clear direction), the system has small negative losses. Losing signals are part of any timing strategy. The key is minimizing large losses or drawdowns. Our system is designed to capture the large trending moves of the market, which will generate a larger return than the sum of all smaller losses. Our methodology for Year 2016 returned +31.43% for all QQQ trades, whereas the buy-and-hold produced +5.92%.
Overall Performance - From 2005 to 2022, we have outperformed the stock market 15 of 17 years. If you notice on the table, we never had a losing year. Our average return per year is +23.49% DIA, +23.20% SPY, and +29.92% QQQ, for an average of +25.54%, whereas the buy-and-hold is +8.16% DIA, +8.64% SPY, and +14.03% QQQ with an average of +10.28%. Overall, we are outperforming the stock market by +15.26% per year since 2005.
Results are based on a "fixed" amount of capital (meaning they are non-compounded).
Individual trades for previous years can be found here: Download in PDF format.
The main fact to observe from the table is that we are consistently beating the buy-and-hold strategy of the market.
If your current trading style has not matched our performance over the last several years,
we encourage you to join now and prosper from our valuable service!
"Timing is everything." - Ray Dalio, Principles: Life and Work
